>> Political strategies in parts of Florida, as in North Carolina and Virginia, will have to reflect a new dynamics -- a booming minority population, an influx of more moderate voters, and a changing set of priorities. The Republican Party will no longer be able to rely on its tried-and-true “Southern strategy,” an approach to winning elections based largely on appeals to rural whites on cultural touchstones such as abortion and race. Florida, along with Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia will behave less like Southern states and more like coastal ones, unlike South Carolina that remains set in its ways. -- Washington Post: Republicans brace for a close race in the changing South. (Amy Gardner), 30May2011; New York Times: “South Carolina is a quirky state” (Nate Silver), 25Feb2012
>> Florida’s political dynamics will change as the minority population grows and the Millennial generation (born between 1982 and 2003) makes its weight felt. Year by year, the percentage of non-whites and Millennials will increase, with non-whites eventually constituting about half the U.S. population and one of three voters belonging to the Millennials. Both groups tend to lean Democratic because they favor government activism in solving social and economic problems, and will significantly influence elections as their numbers expand, especially in coastal regions and the Southwest. -- New Geography: Shifting voter demographics -- America is a different country (Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais) 26Oct2010
>> Immigration issues will continue to divide the conservative, rural north from the more cosmopolitan, economically expanding south similar to the split in Arizona between the white-dominated north and the southern section of the state centered around the ethnically diverse, culturally integrated Tucson metro area. -- Palm Beach Post: Business interests played a major role in killing immigration control. (Dara Kam), 10May2011 NPR: A 51st state? Some in Arizona want a split. (Ted Robbins), 09May2011
>> Redistricting in Florida will be unusually contentious because of the increasing importance of Hispanics to electoral outcomes. The geographical spread of non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida raises the possibility that they could provide just enough votes to give a narrow margin of victory in districts where Democrats have a chance, but produce few Hispanic votes in districts where Democrats don’t stand a chance. Hispanic votes are more strategically “efficient” than black votes, regardless of blacks’ historic loyalty to the Democratic Party in Florida, and the outcome of many electoral races will depend on where Hispanics are allowed to vote. – New York Times: Hispanic-majority districts -- boon or burden for Democrats? (Nate Silver), 23Dec2010
>> The rapid growth of Latinos in Florida and other Southern states will have the paradoxical effect of strengthening the political clout of Republicans over the next decade, as GOP-controlled state legislatures will redraw state and Congressional voting districts after the 2010 Census. Half of Florida’s growth since the prior Census is due to an increase in its Hispanic population, which tends to favor Democratic candidates. Yet the state will likely see an increase in Republican office holders, unless efforts to curb gerrymandering succeeds. In the long run, the growth of Latino communities in the South is part of a long-term demographic shift that will likely benefit Democrats.-- Institute for Southern Studies: GOP poised to gain clout in South due to surging Latino population. (Chris Kromm), 05Oct2010
>> Puerto Ricans will become a crucial bloc in Florida, with its population growing more quickly than the Cuban. They could soon become the largest subgroup of the million and a half Latinos registered to vote in Florida and will likely influence the outcome of elections along the I-4 corridor, where they are concentrated. Politically they tend to vote Democratic, especially those who have migrated from other U.S. cities. Those arriving from the island are less likely to align with a particular party, although some register as Republicans because. in the past, statehood was championed by the Partido Estadista Republicano. As American citizens, they are eligible to vote -- and are somewhat more likely than other Latinos to register -- but are less prone to vote than those living in Puerto Rico where there is a voting culture than encourages high levels of participation. -- Salon: Puerto Rico voter turnout -- why is it so high? (Sasha Issenberg), 27Jan2012
>> Further spending cuts in education and health care will encounter resistance from voters weary of Republican-imposed austerity. The severe spending cuts by Rick Scott and the Republican governors in Ohio and Wisconsin leave them deeply unpopular, and an improving economy will make it harder for these leaders to defend continued austerity. Scott is attempting to boost his standing by restoring some of the massive cuts in state education (although charter schools will benefit more than public education). The economic rebound will pose a political problem for GOP presidential candidates who attack President Obama for his failure to recover quickly from the recession.-- Washington Post: Who’d believe it? Some governors face fallout from an improving economy. (Michael A. Fletcher), 24Feb2012
>> A Republican loss in 2012 will deeply split the Party between the Rotary Club and Burger King factions, predicts Christopher Caldwell, senior editor of the Weekly Standard. The historical parallel is the political realignment in 1972 when the segregationist Wallace Democrats switched to the GOP. Older white, economically vulnerable working class voters will come to represent the main stream of the Republican Party while the professional, managerial class will go elsewhere. Romney is an anachronism -- a throwback to the Party of the 1950s. “Probably the last decade when most Ivy League professionals joined it.” -- Financial Times: The new battle for the old soul of the Republican Party. (Christopher Caldwell), 24 Feb2012
>> Fiscal austerity and budget cutbacks will lead to social instability and politically-motivated violence, according to a cross-national study of the past 90 years. An economic downturn itself does not have this consequence unless followed by severe fiscal retrenchment. -- Centre for Economic Policy Research: Austerity and anarchy -- Budget cuts and social unrest in Europe, 1919-2009. (Jacopop Ponticelli and Hans-Joachim Voth), August 2011.
>> Lack of retirement savings in more than half of Florida’s full-time workers will severely strain social services in the years ahead. Just over 40 percent of workers now participate in their employer’s retirement plans, the lowest in the country, according in a recent study. Many low-paid workers are unable to save for retirement, and many Florida companies are too small to offer benefits. When they do, health insurance is a higher priority. The state is already seeing a sharp rise in the number of people 65 and older dependent on food stamps and Medicaid. Further cutbacks in public assistance will lead to economic turmoil and political unrest. -- Sun Sentinel: Florida has lowest rate of workers saving in a employer retirement plan (Donna Gehrke-White), 08Jan2012
>> It will take 12 years -- and a job growth rate of 200,000 a month -- to reduce the number of long-term unemployed to normal levels. More than 50 percent of Florida's unemployed are without jobs for six months or longer -- worse than in any other state, according to The Brookings Institution. Florida’s “dead zones” of persistent high unemployment are Clewiston, Okeechobee, Port St. Lucie, Sebastian-Vero Beach and Wauchula. -- Sun-Sentinel: Florida’s has nation’s highest percentage of long-term unemployed. (Marcia Heroux Pounds), 01Feb2012; The Atlantic Cities: The surprising geography of persistent unemployment (Kaid Benfield) 01Feb2012
>> Finding a job in the new Florida economy will often mean accepting a lower standard of living. Despite a modest upswing in hiring, the growth is concentrated at the lowest end of the low-wage spectrum: retail clerks, theme park workers and restaurant help. Wage deflation occurs even here, with the bulk of new jobs paying about 25% less than the jobs that disappeared. The predominance of low-paying jobs will have a ripple effect. The newly hired will live in low rental housing, eat cheaper food, and spend less on nonessentials -- especially if gas prices continue to rise. Smaller household budgets will mean shrinking sales tax revenue for the state, prolonging the era of severe fiscal shortfalls. -- St. Petersburg Times: Lowered wages may be new reality for former big earners. (Robert Trigaux), 24Feb2011; Tampa Bay Times: Florida still losing ground in wages despite uptick in jobs. (Jeff Harrington), 06Feb2012
>> The ability of small business to create jobs will be hampered by sluggish retail sales, since retailing is a major source of small business employment (together with construction). But the economy is trapped in a conundrum: small business cannot begin to hire until people begin to find jobs. The recession is likely to permanently change consumer behavior, especially among individuals nearing retirement who suffered heavy financial losses. This group will cut back on spending, both now and in the future, will work more to rebuild their assets, and -- when possible -- defer retirement. Older individuals will reduce consumption a predicted 3.5% before retirement and more (about 4.5%) in later years. With less consumer spending, retailing will not produce as many jobs as in the past. -- Knowledge@Wharton: The great deleveraging -- will consumer spending ever recover? 12October2011
>> Florida will not regain jobs lost during the recession before the end of the decade, predicts Wells Fargo economist Mark Vitner. Similarly pessimistic is Agency of Workforce Innovation’s Rebecca Rust who foresees a continuing loss of jobs as deficits and debt hobble economic recovery. Florida will lose personnel at MacDill AF Base and other military installations around the state as defense spending is curtailed. Slashed budgets in local and state governments will lead to more layoffs of public sector workers, while attempts to curb rising health care costs will shrink hospital and clinic employment. The hoped-for revival of manufacturing appears to have been short-lived, and the housing market remains troubled as rising foreclosure rates adds to the inventory of unsold homes. When job prospects do improve, the unemployment rates will rise as discouraged workers re-enter the job market. Also waiting on the sidelines are young people who are staying in school until they can find work -- keeping labor force participation among youths at its lowest level since the 1940s. --St. Petersburg Times: Florida adds 9,900 jobs in August, but unemployment unchanged. (Jeff Harrington), 17Sept2011
>> Economic recovery in the U.S. will be led by the commodity and agribusiness sectors, and Florida will benefit peripherally. While the growth will center in the rust belt or “fly-over” states -- and Texas -- which were less damaged by the Great Recession (hence quicker to recover), these industries will also thrive in Florida and other southeastern states where agricultural and natural resources play significant economic roles. -- Sunguard Blog: Mining gold from rust belts (Raj Mahajan), 07July2011
>> Unemployment will remain stubbornly high for the foreseeable future. There is only about a 50/10 chance of bringing the jobless rate down to 8% over the next four years, based on historical data. There is about a one in three chance of seeing monthly job gains of 200,000 -- the level necessary to reduce unemployment by 2 percent. “That is not in the cards now” because rapid job expansion requires an economy growing at better than 4 percent GDP. Current growth is barely 2 percent. Missing is some major innovation that stimulates job growth, or a boom in construction. Neither can be relied upon to revive our stalled economy. -- Thoughts From the Front Line: The problem with U.S. unemployment (John Mauldin), 21July2011 The Current: Florida’s jobless rate stays unchanged at 10.6 percent. (Christine Jordan Sexton), 22July2011
>> Small businesses in the Panhandle will recover slowly from the economic impact of the BP spill. The tourism business is seasonal -- like farming -- and involves managing a financial cycle between the boom time of summer and the lean time of winter. Up to 90% of the income for many Gulf businesses is earned during June, July and August. To get through the winter slump, they often take out lines of credit. In 2010, Florida’s west coast tourism business was looking forward to a recovery from 2009, a down season of recession and high gas prices. But after the BP spill, the conventional spend-save-borrow cycle was disrupted. Lenders stopped supplying lines of credit because of uncertainty about the scope of the calamity. Many businesses went under and some of the survivors are now saddled with damaged credit ratings or struggling to pay off old loans. Others had to renegotiate franchise agreements, often at less favorable terms. It will take a number of profitable summers to erase the 2010 losses. -- New York Times: As Gulf tourism rebounds, BP seeks to lower payments. (Campbell Robertson), 15July2011
>> Orlando will surpass Miami as Florida’s fastest growing metropolis, spurred by a booming health sciences complex, cheap housing prices and above average job growth. Orlando will be one of the most rapidly growing cities in the country over the next 25 years, predicts Well Fargo economist Mark Vitner. Starting in the early 2000s, Orlando’s economy has grown while Miami’s has declined. “There is a shift slowly under way as far as jobs go” , observed a Brookings Institute economist. With the rapid expansion of the Lake Nona medical cluster, Orlando’s economy is becoming more diverse than Miami’s. It has growing ties to the global economy compared to Miami, which is primarily a conduit to business in Latin America. -- Institute for Economic Competitiveness/UCF: Orlando poised to grow faster than Miami (Barbara Liston, Orlando Sentinel), 27April2011; New Geography: Orlando is number ten “next boom towns” in the U.S.. followed by Jacksonville (#17), Miami (#27), Tampa (#28). (Joel Kotkin), 06July2011
>> Miami will do better in good times, and worse in bad times. Its economic mix of tourism, real estate, import trade from China and export trade to Brazil and the Latin zone will make it especially vulnerable to downturns. With the U.S. economy on the rebound, Miami should be among the top performing cities in 2012 and 2013, predicts Chris Lafakis, an economist for Moody's. The continuing inflow of people and investment from outside the country will help feed the next boom (just as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe caused a recent dip in condo sales and prices). -- Miami Herald: Some forecast a robust rebound in Miami-Dade (Douglas Hanks), 05Feb2011.
>> Allowing insurance rates to be determined by market forces will effectively control growth and steer development away from vulnerable coastal areas. Actuarially sound insurance rates will encourage large carriers to return to the state and end the use of cheap insurance to promote growth -- a de facto policy that has impeded the development of a functioning market. Rates that are market-based will also attract companies to Florida by reducing uncertainty about the cost of insurance from year to year. -- Florida Trend: Citizens needs to be put on a steep glide path to extinction. (Mark R. Howard), June 2011
>> Florida will have a more diverse employment base than in the past as it becomes regionally competitive in 22 industries -- the broadest range of any state in the country, according to Wells Fargo economists. But this diversity will not necessarily translate into widespread gains in employment. High rates of job creation will occur in those industries that are the fastest growing, and some -- especially in high tech fields -- will usually not hire in large numbers. Wells Fargo identified several sectors likely to see the most rapid expansion: health care and social services, hospitality, state and local government, finance and insurance, business and consumer services. Projections of accelerating growth will be scaled back following public sector layoffs and reduced government spending in health care, medical research and education. These job losses will not likely be balanced by new hiring in real estate, construction and retail trade which will remain sluggish. -- St. Petersburg Times: Florida is best positioned state for growing jobs long-term, Wells Fargo says. (Jeff Harrington), 14April2011. New York Times: Just because a field is fast growing doesn’t mean you can get a job in it. Most of these occupations require advanced training and graduate degrees. (Cecilia Capuzzi Simon), 13April2011
>> Florida will be trapped in a vicious circle in which a moribund market for real estate, high levels of joblessness, and weak consumer spending all reinforce each other. Florida is continuing to lose jobs in construction, government and financial services while regaining some jobs in retail, tourism and health care -- primarily lower- paid home health aides and clinical workers. Many of the newly created jobs pay less than the ones lost, and lower average wages means less disposable income to spend in retail stores and restaurants. Without enough customers, business will close or lay off employees, adding to the jobless rolls. Other states have seen new job growth in the manufacturing sector, but Florida’s factories make products related to housing, for the most part. Raising the minimum wage is being considered elsewhere in the U.S. as a means of stimulating the economy, but Florida is not among them. However, Florida is among the five states offering the stingiest unemployment benefits. Unable break out of the cycle, Florida’s recovery from the economic recession will lag behind all but Nevada, according to Wells Fargo economists. -- St. Petersburg Times: Why Florida’s unemployment rate is so much higher than the national average. (Jeff Harrington), 27March2011 ; Sarasota Herald Tribune: Sunshine state in shadows (John Hielscher), 28March2011
>> Slashing state and local public payrolls will weaken Florida’s feeble economic recovery. Dismissed workers will add to the the already high unemployment rate and many will remain jobless for many months. Those public employees who escape the downsizing will see cuts in discretionary income as wages are frozen and benefit costs are passed on to them. The cumulative impact will be lower demand and consumption that will be felt by struggling merchants in the state, predicts Chris McCarty of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. -- University of Florida News: Floridians grow suddenly optimistic about economy, UF research finds. 25Jan2011
>> Florida’s economic recovery will stall as public sector jobs are victims of budget cutting. Less money for education, health care and social services will stifle the few areas of job growth in the state –increasing unemployment at a faster rate than the private sector can add workers at a time of slowed population growth, struggling property markets, and weak consumer spending. -- Florida Center for Fiscal and Economic Policy:Replacing 900,000 jobs lost in the recession could take years. (Alan Stonecipher). March 2010
>> Florida will be the epicenter of the fastest growing occupations in the next decade. The five categories that will add the largest number of workers, according to BLS, are personal and home care aides, food preparation and serving workers, customer service representatives, home health aides, and registered nurses. Most of these occupations pay relatively low wages and require little education beyond high school. By 2020, about 15 percent of the labor force could work in health care, reaching more than 25 percent by 2050 if current trends continue. -- Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections, 2011.
>> Unemployment will remain high because many of the jobless were not contributing to the economy. Their productivity was lower than the cost of training, employing and insuring them and their elimination from the work force tended to improve the profitability of their former employers. Those whom companies found to be most expendable were often the poorly educated and unemployment rates for those with no more than high school educations will remain perilously high after the rest of the economy has recovered. Government efforts to lower long-term unemployment should emphasize retraining for more economically productive work and assistance in relocating to areas with better job prospects. -- Foreign Affairs: Ten percent unemployment forever? (Tyler Cowen and Jayme Lemke), 05Jan2011
>> Recovery will first occur in some of Florida’s larger metropolitan areas that are beginning to seeing a rebound in international trade and tourism, predicts Wells Fargo economist Mark Vitner. But commercial and residential construction will not see normal times while there is an oversupply of housing, a glut of foreclosures, and a large number of homeowners who are seriously delinquent and on the verge of foreclosure. -- South Florida Business Journal: Florida economic recovery will take time. 26July2010
>> The recession will inflict long-term damage on Florida’s economy. It will take time for workers to find jobs outside of construction, where most will never again be needed. As high unemployment persists, former employees will lose skills and contacts which are difficult to regain. Job loss will be aggravated by plant closures and the scrapping of equipment, while new capital projects are unable to get financing. The credit squeeze will also make it hard for small, innovative companies to get a start, throttling economic growth and job creation. “These are very traumatic events,” warns Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff. “They have political consequences that you can see for decades. They have profound consequences on how the economy is structured. This is going to influence a whole generation that has been through this.” Shrinking the effective workforce will diminish the long-term economic potential of the economy. – Financial Times: Recession will leave permanent scars. (Chris Giles), 23Nov09; Financial Times: US long-term unemployment (Lex), 09July10
>> People will be forced to save more for retirement and spend more for health care at a time when pay is poor and job insecurity high. The new economics of aging will entail frequent periods of joblessness and the likelihood of permanent unemployment past age 50. Expensive personal health insurance will be necessary to cover the inevitable scaling back of Medicare, and even current retirees should assume a 20 percent cut in Social Security benefits at some point. -- New York Times: Preparing for the inevitable bursting bubble (Ron Lieber), 27Feb10.
>> The resumption of hiring will leave a huge number of the unemployed still without jobs as some occupational categories become obsolete. Over 50 percent of unemployed workers have no prospect of getting their old jobs back and many – mostly older workers – have failed to find new jobs after months or years of searching. The percentage of unemployed people looking for jobs for more than six months is at 45.9 percent – the highest in at least six decades. Job retraining will help some reenter the workforce but they will often be required to relocate, and moving can be difficult because of age, poor health, and family ties. --New York Times: In job market shift some workers are left behind (Catherine Rampell), 12May10
>> Near-term job growth will be in health care, education, temporary jobs, and the government sector, once state and local governments get their budgets under control. An important growth area for education will be job training programs for the long-term unemployed. Once the economy begins to improve, retail will be the next sector to begin hiring. But construction jobs will never come back to peak levels. –Morningstar: What can pull employment out of the rut? (Vishnu Lekraj) 07Aug2010
>> Florida will need more than 900,000 jobs to recover from the Great Recession, a gain that will take more than four years at the current rate of job growth. With unemployment, under-employment, long-term joblessness, and the wage gap between minorities and whites at historic highs, a perilously large percentage ofFlorida’s population face the prospect of prolonged poverty. -- RISP/FIU: State of working Florida (Emily Eisenhauer, Bernardo Oseguera, Carlos A. Sanchez), 06Sept2010
>> Demographic shift will be a “game changer” as Florida slowly recovers from the recession, predicts UCF economist Sean. M. Snaith. While Florida’s population will continue to grow, the rate will be lower than in the boom years. The growth once provided by retirees moving into the state will be a casualty of the recession, causing a demographic shift that may be permanent. Retirement will be delayed as older adults try to recoup losses from housing and investment accounts. The smaller numbers that do retire to the state may avoid areas (such as South Florida) where already steep property insurance rates are likely to climb even more, offsetting the drop in housing prices. Slower growth will keep unemployment levels relatively high until at least 2016. – South Florida Business Journal: Getting back to boom era job levels may take six years (Kevin Gale), 10Sept2010
>> The recession will make young adults who have jobs less likely to change them, and more cautious about spending and indebtedness. A large portion of wages will go to reducing debt, paying an increasing share ofhealth insurance and other benefits, and saving for retirement. Fear of unemployment and growing frugality sets this generation apart from the preceding one. “The change in young workers’ mindsets has been remarkable,” concluded an executive of Fidelity Investments, which conducted the survey. “Historically, this generation has been much more mobile and always looking for the next opportunity.” -- Financial Times: Job-hopping reined in for young Americans (Samantha Pearson), 08Dec09
>> The resumption of hiring will leave a huge number of the unemployed still without jobs as some occupational categories become obsolete. Over 50 percent of unemployed workers have no prospect of getting their old jobs back and many – mostly older workers – have failed to find new jobs after months or years of searching. The percentage of unemployed people looking for jobs for more than six months is at 45.9 percent – the highest in at least six decades. Job retraining will help some reenter the workforce but they will often be required to relocate, and moving can be difficult because of age, poor health, and family ties. --New York Times: In job market shift some workers are left behind (Catherine Rampell), 12May10
>> People coming of age in the current recession will lose faith in their ability to influence their success in life. They will form life-long beliefs that success depends more on luck than on effort. In later life, they will tend to support government intervention in the economy, but at the same time, have less confidence in the effectiveness of such action. Young people ages 18 to 25 are especially prone to such long-lasting economic fatalism and sense of personal and institutional powerlessness. Older adults are less likely to change their views because of negative economic shocks. -- NBER Working Paper 15321: Growing up in a recession (Paola Giuliano and Antonio Spilimbergo), Sept 2009
>> People will be forced to save more for retirement and spend more for health care at a time when pay is poor and job insecurity high. The new economics of aging will entail frequent periods of joblessness and the likelihood of permanent unemployment past age 50. Expensive personal health insurance will be necessary to cover the inevitable scaling back of Medicare, and even current retirees should assume a 20 percent cut in Social Security benefits at some point. -- New York Times: Preparing for the inevitable bursting bubble (Ron Lieber), 27Feb10.
>> Florida is not likely to see big gains in employment until the state has more large employers. Contrary to what is often claimed, small companies are not a major source of job creation, according to a new study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Big companies do the most hiring, but they also resort to mass layoffs when the economy weakens. Small companies, on the other hand, are more stable -- cautious to hire but slow to let workers go. -- New York Times: Small companies create more jobs? Maybe not. (Floyd Norris), 25Feb2012
